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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T00:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40972/-1
CME Note: Faint loop CME seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and as an extremely faint flux rope CME to the NNW in SOHO LASCO C2. Not visible in CCOR-1; obstructed by pylon. Source is an eruption from AR 14198 (N11W19) seen as dimming and brightening starting at 2025-08-29T23:37Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T18:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40996/1
Model Inputs:
2025-08-30T00:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=15.0, Lat.=25.0, Speed=878.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T03:50Z
2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1303.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2025-08-30T22:41Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-09-01T18:24Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0
(kp)90=7
(kp)180=9

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T18:28Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-09-01T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_035100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 44.05 hour(s)
Difference: 2.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-31T00:23Z

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